Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e36…6215 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$205 (+3%) realized +$209 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days+$425
14 days+$390
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$271
sports 10% +$21
crypto 4% +$96
culture 3% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 65% -1.5%
≤30d 28 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 54% -2.8%
≤90d 33 -17.5% -25.3% 48% 45% -6.1%
all 42 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 45% -5.8%
10% -26.9% 38% -14.8%
15% -34.0% 33% -23.1%
20% -40.4% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$66 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$209
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage134d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $702 $698 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $484 +$223 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $312 +$172 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 −$196 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $381 +$127 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $457 −$315 -69%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $483 +$213 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $341 −$175 -51%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $158 −$148 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $163 +$111 +68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $292 +$31 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $171 +$122 +71%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $186 +$71 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 +$55 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $88 +$43 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $177 −$90 -50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$19 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $533 +$256 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 +$41 +102%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$30 -77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$50 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3PM ET Mar 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11AM ET Mar 13 $13 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 13 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9AM ET Mar 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $10 +$25 +248%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $707 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $707 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $484 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $484 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $312 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $508 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $381 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $141 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $457 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $696 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $483 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $112 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $109 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $86 47h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $72 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $54 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $161 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $163 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $324 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $292 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $292 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $698.06 · official $698.06 (match) · 97 history records