Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e37…55e9 crypto 1739 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$496 (+9%) realized +$494 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%1010W / 733L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day148.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$166
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1136 +4.8% -5.2% 60% 60% -5.4%
≤30d 1743 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 1743 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 58% -8.7%
all 1743 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 58% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 58% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 58% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 58% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 58% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$494
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1010 / 733
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1743 / 1739
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day148.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1743 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 55¢ 98¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +75%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.20 · official $5.16 · 3500 history records