Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e39…49a7 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+6%) realized +$117 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$120
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$86
weather 29% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 75% +0.8%
≤30d 5 +8.4% -1.9% 80% 60% -2.7%
≤90d 5 +8.4% -1.9% 80% 60% -2.7%
all 5 +8.4% -1.9% 80% 60% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 60% -2.7%
10% -11.3% 0% -12.0%
15% -19.9% 0% -20.5%
20% -27.7% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.41 per $1 lost it wins $6.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage127d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? No 96¢ 94¢ $299 $293 −$6 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $101 +$15 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $351 +$34 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $314 +$38 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $280 +$34 +12%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 16 $299 −$19 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $101 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $100 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $351 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $314 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $280 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $280 7d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $299 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.73 · official $392.73 (match) · 12 history records