trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +3.1% | -6.8% | 44% | 11% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +3.1% | -6.8% | 44% | 11% | -9.3% |
| all | 25 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 44% | 4% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 4% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 4% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 48¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 17 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $57 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $34 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 02 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $29 | −$1 | -3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 27 | $27 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | May 15 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? | Apr 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 25 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 24 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 31 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 19 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $13 | −$1 | -7% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? | Mar 12 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? | Mar 10 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries applaud during Trump's address to Congress? | Mar 05 | $13 | $0 | -0% |