Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e3e…4781 sports 346 markets active 3h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-3%) realized −$69 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%186W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$101
14 days+$79
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$67
crypto 42% −$114
other 6% +$66
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +17.4% +6.2% 63% 52% +6.9%
≤30d 179 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 47% -5.9%
≤90d 329 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 43% -13.7%
all 329 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 43% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 43% -13.7%
10% -25.3% 30% -22.0%
15% -32.5% 23% -29.5%
20% -39.1% 18% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses186 / 143
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)329 / 346
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$32 +259%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$37 +712%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$10 +197%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$40 +109%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$30 +264%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$13 +158%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$12 +134%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $18 3h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Ko BUY 25¢ $9 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 21¢ $10 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 46¢ $5 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $15 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $15 18h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 18¢ $5 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Canada BUY $6 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Mex BUY $3 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY $3 18h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qata BUY $3 18h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 18h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $5 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 19h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 94¢ $10 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Pana BUY 19¢ $6 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Pana BUY 10¢ $6 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $37 25h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 13¢ $3 35h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $8 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.89 · official $50.89 · 708 history records