Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e3f…d4bf sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized −$51 · open +$111
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%148W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$782
14 days−$193
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$105
crypto 32% −$102
world 6% +$248
weather 2% −$26
other 2% +$66
politics 1% −$6
finance 1% −$27
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +42.9% +29.3% 51% 38% +18.5%
≤30d 102 +14.0% +3.1% 53% 33% -6.8%
≤90d 307 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 31% -8.5%
all 307 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 31% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 31% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 25% -17.2%
15% -34.7% 20% -25.2%
20% -41.1% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses148 / 159
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions3
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage53d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $441 $541 +$99 (+23%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 73¢ 76¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 79¢ 94¢ $33 $39 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $16 −$2 -12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $404 +$101 +25%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$18 -79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $43 −$24 -57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $12 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $42 +$26 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $32 +$83 +256%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 18 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$14 -70%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $69 −$47 -68%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$9 -60%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 +$91 +997%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $245 −$2 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $265 +$176 +66%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $274 +$26 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$54 +120%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$16 -48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$77 +335%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$72 +257%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 +$44 +124%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 +$137 +219%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $37 +$20 +54%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 15 $214 +$18 +8%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $149 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $35 +$45 +129%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 07 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 07 $10 $0 -4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $65 on June 6? Jun 07 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $127 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $131 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $210 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $75 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $76 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $76 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $162 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $34 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $34 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $4 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 19¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 9h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 28¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 28¢ $9 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 28¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 28¢ $7 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $16 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $688.28 · official $688.28 (match) · 2103 history records