Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e40…ec9d crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$651 (-4%) realized −$666 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate87%144W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$38
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$451
crypto 33% −$178
weather 30% −$47
other 2% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +15.1% +4.1% 60% 40% -0.9%
≤30d 14 +5.7% -4.4% 64% 43% -18.4%
≤90d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 85% 18% -10.0%
all 165 +6.7% -3.4% 87% 8% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 8% -13.3%
10% -12.7% 6% -21.6%
15% -21.1% 6% -29.2%
20% -28.8% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$75 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses144 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage131d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? No 88¢ 95¢ $141 $152 +$11 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $35 $38 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $152 +$24 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $37 +$114 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $63 −$61 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $59 −$58 -97%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $7 +$9 +126%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$18 +97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $127 +$15 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $157 −$157 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $275 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 24? Apr 24 $152 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 16? Apr 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 15? Apr 16 $266 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12? Apr 13 $263 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 12? Apr 12 $144 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 11? Apr 11 $251 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 9? Apr 09 $181 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 8? Apr 08 $245 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 7? Apr 07 $242 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6? Apr 06 $240 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 6? Apr 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 5? Apr 05 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3? Apr 03 $221 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 3? Apr 03 $219 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 3? Apr 03 $217 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 2? Apr 02 $213 +$4 +2%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 259.5 Apr 02 $64 +$1 +1%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 252.5 Apr 02 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 2? Apr 01 $209 +$3 +1%
Spread: Hornets (-17.5) Apr 01 $205 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 30? Mar 30 $204 +$2 +1%
Ivashka vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 22.5 Mar 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Ivashka vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 23.5 Mar 29 $56 +$1 +2%
Ivashka vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 29 $94 +$2 +2%
Sanchez vs. Ce: Match O/U 23.5 Mar 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bolt vs. Rybakov: Match O/U 23.5 Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Bolt vs. Rybakov: Match O/U 22.5 Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Liam Draxl vs. Mitchell Krueger: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $20 $0 +1%
Draxl vs. Krueger: Match O/U 23.5 Mar 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Draxl vs. Krueger: Match O/U 22.5 Mar 29 $84 +$1 +1%
Blanch vs. Olivieri: Match O/U 22.5 Mar 28 $55 $0 +1%
Blanch vs. Olivieri: Match O/U 23.5 Mar 28 $56 +$1 +1%
Blanch vs. Olivieri: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 28 $84 +$1 +1%
Medjedovic vs. Sachko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Mar 28 $82 +$1 +1%
Medjedovic vs. Sachko: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Mar 28 $52 +$1 +1%
Noguchi vs. Wendelken: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 28 $80 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $111 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 29? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $176 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $152 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $63 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $52 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $141 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.20 · official $190.20 (match) · 399 history records