Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e43…0e32 crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,223 (-11%) realized −$4,182 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 62L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,848
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 33% -33.8%
≤30d 45 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 33% -33.8%
≤90d 45 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 33% -33.8%
all 99 -18.9% -26.6% 37% 33% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 33% -21.0%
10% -33.6% 26% -28.6%
15% -40.1% 21% -35.5%
20% -45.9% 16% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$173 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$4,182
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage131d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 20¢ 14¢ $147 $106 −$41 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$24 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $165 +$132 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $97 −$46 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $321 +$163 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $141 +$104 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $168 +$79 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $64 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$149 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$45 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$61 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $65 −$59 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$41 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $115 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $134 +$27 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $76 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $85 +$91 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $69 +$153 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $882 −$882 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$21 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$68 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9AM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 12 $3,099 −$3,099 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 12 $2,612 −$474 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $49 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $106 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $288 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.30 · official $340.88 · 812 history records