Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e47…a510 other 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$297 (+1%) realized +$411 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%162W / 103L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,223
7 days−$1,374
14 days−$1,280
30 days−$835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$351
world 20% +$60
politics 13% +$582
crypto 10% −$534
sports 7% +$282
tech 4% +$104
finance 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -40.1% -45.8% 36% 32% -46.4%
≤30d 83 -13.8% -22.0% 58% 47% -19.1%
≤90d 163 -17.6% -25.5% 55% 50% -15.6%
all 265 -3.0% -12.3% 61% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -8.3%
10% -20.7% 35% -17.1%
15% -28.3% 23% -25.1%
20% -35.3% 15% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$43 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$411
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses162 / 103
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)265 / 267
History coverage624d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $55 $65 +$10 (+19%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 12¢ $151 $26 −$124 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $101 −$80 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $782 −$782 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $52 −$48 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $70 +$56 +80%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $60 −$24 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $72 +$9 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $576 +$96 +17%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 11 $92 −$41 -44%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 11 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $51 +$21 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $150 +$23 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $50 −$19 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$10 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $103 +$147 +144%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $180 +$33 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $102 −$60 -59%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $50 −$2 -3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$10 +48%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$16 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 +$16 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $51 +$16 +32%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$8 +25%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $51 +$4 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $354 +$17 +5%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $31 −$14 -46%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $19 +$9 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$9 +45%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $205 +$275 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $104 +$20 +19%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$147 +72%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $51 −$27 -54%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $51 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $55 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 41¢ $62 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $62 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $51 10h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $50 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $782 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $105 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $106 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $76 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $36 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $0 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $76 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.76 · official $91.76 (match) · 898 history records