Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e4b…8d1f sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$400 (-3%) realized −$371 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%57W / 81L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$123
14 days+$25
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$863
sports 38% +$619
weather 6% −$284
other 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.1% -4.0% 36% 36% +49.5%
≤30d 103 +6.1% -4.0% 36% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 130 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 30% -14.3%
all 138 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 28% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 28% -12.8%
10% -19.7% 28% -21.1%
15% -27.5% 28% -28.7%
20% -34.6% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$48 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses57 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage108d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 3¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$30 +146%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +226%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$4 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $537 +$1,340 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $534 −$521 -98%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $437 −$428 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $444 −$7 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $326 −$320 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $82 −$80 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $42 −$41 -98%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 +$15 +276%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 +$12 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$11 +529%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $20 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $5 38h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 2d
Australia to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.97 · official $40.97 (match) · 245 history records