Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e4b…d659 politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$10
other 14% +$12
economics 3% $0
sports 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 35 +0.4% -9.2% 17% 3% -9.4%
all 46 +3.4% -6.4% 22% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -15.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage604d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $62 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 09 $9 +$13 +150%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $279 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,361 −$3 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $406 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $785 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 56m
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $6 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $14 25d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $14 25d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.21 · official $20.21 (match) · 241 history records