Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7e50…2211 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%27W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$16
other 32% −$33
crypto 16% +$3
weather 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +7.2% -3.1% 75% 45% -10.5%
≤30d 20 +7.2% -3.1% 75% 45% -10.5%
≤90d 40 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 45% -12.7%
all 40 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 45% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 45% -12.7%
10% -22.3% 32% -21.0%
15% -29.8% 22% -28.6%
20% -36.7% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses27 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage68d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$11 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$29 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $88 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $55 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 +$2 +8%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$8 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $14 +$5 +36%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Draw at halftime? May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 08 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 08 $14 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 08 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 33¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $21 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $21 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $6 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 81¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 98¢ $48 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $44 27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $44 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 98¢ $43 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $43 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $44 28h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 37h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 38h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 84¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $27 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $21 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $7 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records