Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7E 0x7e52…00f5 sports 472 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,199 (+20%) realized +$18,798 · open −$599
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%234W / 234L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$714est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,167
7 days+$10,033
14 days+$9,635
30 days+$5,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$8,380
other 21% +$12,781
world 15% −$7,209
crypto 3% −$455
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +60.9% +45.6% 71% 71% +61.9%
≤30d 95 +28.8% +16.6% 66% 51% +14.5%
≤90d 236 +24.1% +12.3% 57% 45% +13.9%
all 468 +16.8% +5.7% 50% 44% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 44% +5.0%
10% -4.5% 42% -5.1%
15% -13.7% 39% -14.2%
20% -22.1% 34% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$171 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$18,798
Unrealized−$599
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses234 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$714
Open positions4
Markets (closed)468 / 472
History coverage125d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $170 $80 −$90 (-53%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $180 $38 −$142 (-79%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $373 $7 −$367 (-98%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+174%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $138 +$155 +112%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $187 +$111 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $239 +$95 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $214 +$161 +75%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $156 +$104 +67%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $272 +$107 +39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $188 +$109 +58%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $231 +$340 +147%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $108 +$159 +148%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $104 +$67 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $108 +$102 +94%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $256 +$135 +53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $178 −$175 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $306 +$1,483 +484%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $326 +$870 +267%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $107 +$61 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$42 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $156 +$70 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $293 +$276 +94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$132 +132%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $99 +$42 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $103 −$78 -75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $213 +$141 +66%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $930 +$1,581 +170%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $387 −$387 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $652 +$3,872 +594%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $202 +$172 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $269 +$63 +23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $951 −$267 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $118 +$44 +37%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $105 +$494 +472%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $108 +$314 +291%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $542 +$95 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $219 +$241 +110%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $70 +$117 +167%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $96 +$78 +81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $563 −$550 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $209 +$62 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $202 +$43 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $294 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $292 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $138 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $298 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 84¢ $334 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $207 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $168 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $214 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $187 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $239 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 87¢ $260 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 95¢ $379 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $197 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $6 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $27 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $43 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $130 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $53 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $125 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $14 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $12 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $13 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $26 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 14h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 16h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 16h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 16h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 16h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.63 · official $124.17 (match) · 2280 history records