Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e58…2093 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
other 24% −$3
politics 19% −$2
economics 10% $0
crypto 9% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 4% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 115 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage151d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $255 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 6h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 8d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $48 20d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 21d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $55 34d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $56 34d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $54 122d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $54 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $13 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 122d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $24 122d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $32 122d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $57 122d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 93¢ $56 122d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? BUY No 94¢ $56 122d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 122d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $53 122d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $9 122d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $3 122d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $23 122d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $24 122d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $23 122d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $23 122d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $0 122d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $58 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 491 history records