Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e59…7b8b sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+1%) realized +$246 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$10,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$28
other 27% +$99
politics 11% +$19
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -45.7% -50.9% 50% 0% -2.1%
≤30d 2 -45.7% -50.9% 50% 0% -2.1%
≤90d 2 -45.7% -50.9% 50% 0% -2.1%
all 2 -45.7% -50.9% 50% 0% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.9% 0% -2.1%
10% -55.6% 0% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here -59.9% 0% -20.0%
20% -63.8% 0% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$10 · ×26.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.73 per $1 lost it wins $26.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10,482
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions35
Markets (closed)2 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Kyrian Jacquet 94¢ 100¢ $1,861 $1,978 +$118 (+6%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $1,380 $1,380 −$0 (-0%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ 46¢ $900 $910 +$10 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 57¢ $793 $834 +$41 (+5%)
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? No 86¢ 88¢ $717 $737 +$20 (+3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 29¢ 36¢ $557 $704 +$147 (+26%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 85¢ 86¢ $509 $516 +$7 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 25¢ $460 $500 +$40 (+9%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 85¢ 86¢ $428 $436 +$8 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 91¢ 100¢ $307 $339 +$31 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 61¢ 61¢ $316 $315 −$1 (-0%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Alliance Guardians 37¢ 39¢ $255 $268 +$13 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 57¢ 50¢ $248 $220 −$29 (-12%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? No 44¢ 44¢ $167 $167 +$0 (+0%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 89¢ 87¢ $161 $158 −$3 (-2%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 91¢ 94¢ $149 $153 +$4 (+3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $109 $122 +$12 (+11%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Fortress 25¢ 23¢ $122 $112 −$10 (-8%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 28¢ 33¢ $85 $99 +$14 (+16%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 77¢ 78¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+2%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 49¢ 54¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+10%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $2,973 +$255 +9%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $3 1m
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 88¢ $289 3m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 61¢ $4 7m
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8m
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $243 8m
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $495 8m
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $55 8m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $3 9m
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc. BUY No 11¢ $3 10m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 94¢ $1,861 12m
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 85¢ $427 15m
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 83¢ $84 16m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Mees Rottgering 22¢ $223 23m
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 24m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 26m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 26m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 26m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 26m
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 27m
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY No 43¢ $43 28m
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 30m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 32m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 32m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 32m
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 77¢ $77 32m
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 32m
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $900 32m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY Fortress 23¢ $20 35m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY Fortress 24¢ $24 35m
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY Fortress 25¢ $25 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,482.06 · official $10,482.27 (match) · 127 history records