Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e5e…9db8 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-10%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$90
other 28% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.4% -32.5% 30% 30% -32.2%
≤30d 10 -25.4% -32.5% 30% 30% -32.2%
≤90d 10 -25.4% -32.5% 30% 30% -32.2%
all 10 -25.4% -32.5% 30% 30% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 30% -32.2%
10% -38.9% 20% -38.7%
15% -44.8% 20% -44.6%
20% -50.2% 20% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$25 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$6 +21%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$48 -59%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 45h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $37 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $34 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 6d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records