Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7e62…6cf7 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+12%) realized +$110 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$51
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$50
other 15% +$43
world 15% −$5
crypto 8% −$5
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.4% -1.0% 62% 58% +1.8%
≤30d 35 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 49% -0.7%
≤90d 35 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 49% -0.7%
all 35 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 49% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 49% -0.7%
10% -16.2% 23% -10.2%
15% -24.3% 14% -18.9%
20% -31.7% 11% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage10d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? No 19¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $57 −$7 -12%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $8 +$2 +21%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$5 +37%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $9 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $9 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $4 +$1 +32%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $8 +$2 +24%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $42 +$8 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $17 +$3 +18%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 +$2 +27%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $6 +$4 +64%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Jun 26 $4 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $125 −$5 -4%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 +$14 +256%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 +$45 +287%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $35 −$14 -38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $16 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $82 +$44 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $189 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $92 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 68¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 42¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 57¢ $38 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 66¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 84¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 73¢ $15 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 64¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $8 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $8 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 64¢ $3 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 64¢ $4 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 82¢ $8 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $9 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $9 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 88¢ $9 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $18 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 4h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY No 4¢ $0 37h
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.27 · official $55.27 (match) · 200 history records