Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e62…b621 crypto 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized −$255 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%109W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day69.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days+$85
14 days−$255
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$248
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -11.8% -20.2% 34% 31% -8.3%
≤30d 315 -14.6% -22.7% 35% 24% -13.6%
≤90d 315 -14.6% -22.7% 35% 24% -13.6%
all 315 -14.6% -22.7% 35% 24% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 24% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 20% -21.9%
15% -36.8% 18% -29.4%
20% -43.0% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses109 / 206
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)315 / 318
History coverage13d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 21¢ 30¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 40¢ 69¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$23 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$20 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.58 · official $57.08 · 1158 history records