Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e63…1e50 crypto 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,550 (-9%) realized −$1,550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%199W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$1,052
14 days−$974
30 days−$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,789
other 1% −$5
sports 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -30.4% -37.1% 44% 38% -32.9%
≤30d 167 -11.3% -19.7% 46% 40% -25.8%
≤90d 456 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 38% -26.3%
all 456 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 38% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 38% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 32% -33.4%
15% -39.5% 27% -39.8%
20% -45.5% 20% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$27 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses199 / 257
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage73d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (227 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$23 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $191 −$186 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$30 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $151 +$30 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $37 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$24 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $68 −$33 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$55 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $69 −$20 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $98 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $68 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $63 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $22 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $130 −$125 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $59 −$56 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $45 −$5 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $115 +$33 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $109 −$6 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $70 −$68 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$13 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $55 +$49 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $35 −$33 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $38 +$26 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $119 +$12 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $70 −$68 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$38 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $189 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1908 history records