Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7e66…0d3a other 1016 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,081 (-4%) realized −$947 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%141W / 852L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$31
14 days−$3
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,462
world 8% −$121
sports 6% +$508
finance 4% −$359
crypto 3% −$89
politics 1% −$50
tech 0% +$34
weather 0% +$84
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -17.6% -25.5% 13% 13% -22.3%
≤30d 74 -16.5% -24.5% 16% 16% -26.6%
≤90d 720 -66.9% -70.1% 8% 7% -69.8%
all 993 -30.2% -36.8% 14% 14% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 14% -14.5%
10% -42.9% 13% -22.7%
15% -48.4% 12% -30.2%
20% -53.5% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$20 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$947
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses141 / 852
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)993 / 1016
History coverage175d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 993 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 15¢ 20¢ $34 $47 +$12 (+36%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 4¢ 9¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+101%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 12¢ 34¢ $13 $38 +$25 (+192%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? No 44¢ 68¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 52¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? No 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+76%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-63%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? No 3¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-61%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $13 $2 −$11 (-87%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? No 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 73¢ 1¢ $141 $1 −$140 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$82 +410%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$23 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$9 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $14 −$13 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$21 +352%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$29 +671%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$18 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 29¢ $27 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 30¢ $25 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 8¢ $3 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $0 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $0 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $0 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $0 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $0 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $2 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $0 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $0 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 10¢ $3 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 4¢ $4 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 14¢ $11 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 3¢ $4 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 2¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.85 · official $208.96 · 3500 history records