Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e6a…0345 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+1%) realized −$288 · open +$380
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5,483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$380
sports 13% −$95
world 5% −$300
crypto 1% +$119
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+97.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 17 +117.8% +97.0% 47% 47% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +97.0% 47% -31.6%
10% +78.2% 47% -38.1%
15% +61.0% 41% -44.1%
20% +45.2% 41% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +208% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$71 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$5,483
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$380
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage161d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $4,977 $5,344 +$367 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 70¢ $125 $137 +$12 (+10%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 93¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $100 −$27 -27%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $100 −$63 -63%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $100 +$51 +52%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $100 +$26 +26%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 09 $50 +$35 +69%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 09 $50 +$61 +122%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 09 $50 +$64 +127%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $20 −$16 -82%
Pacers vs. Clippers Mar 05 $20 $0 -1%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $20 +$80 +400%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $50 +$39 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $20 +$10 +51%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $4,999 34d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Cavaliers 16¢ $10 101d
Knicks vs. Jazz SELL Jazz 27¢ $73 101d
Knicks vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 37¢ $100 101d
Raptors vs. Pelicans SELL Raptors 21¢ $37 101d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Raptors 56¢ $100 101d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers BUY Timberwolves 67¢ $200 102d
Knicks vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 100¢ $101 103d
Knicks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 50¢ $50 103d
Knicks vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 45¢ $51 103d
Knicks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 44¢ $50 103d
Nuggets vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 79¢ $126 103d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $100 103d
Hornets vs. Suns SELL Suns 100¢ $111 104d
Hornets vs. Suns BUY Suns 45¢ $50 104d
Pistons vs. Heat SELL Heat 100¢ $84 104d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 59¢ $50 105d
Knicks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 44¢ $50 105d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies SELL Grizzlies 5¢ $4 105d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 28¢ $20 105d
Pacers vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 83¢ $20 108d
Hawks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 63¢ $20 108d
Pacers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 84¢ $20 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 9¢ $5 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 110d
Nuggets vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $30 113d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 66¢ $20 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,483.41 · official $5,483.30 (match) · 37 history records