Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e6c…a53d other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$267 (-9%) realized −$208 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$100
14 days+$16
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$252
sports 33% +$74
politics 13% −$194
world 12% +$179
tech 2% +$4
crypto 2% −$39
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +39.1% +25.9% 80% 80% +28.8%
≤30d 10 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 50% -4.9%
≤90d 27 -1.8% -11.2% 37% 37% -4.3%
all 84 -7.9% -16.7% 42% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -15.2%
10% -24.7% 35% -23.3%
15% -31.9% 27% -30.7%
20% -38.6% 20% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage255d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 27¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$74 +152%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $30 +$16 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $66 −$24 -37%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 29 $25 +$4 +16%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 21 $30 −$20 -65%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 21 $50 −$34 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $50 +$142 +284%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $142 +$48 +34%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $10 +$43 +426%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Apr 02 $10 +$45 +446%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$2 +19%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $25 +$11 +45%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Mar 10 $30 +$38 +128%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $91 +$31 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $20 +$13 +67%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$66 +66%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $40 +$85 +212%
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 25 $13 −$8 -58%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios Feb 22 $75 +$26 +35%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $45 +$16 +36%
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) Feb 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? Feb 22 $20 −$13 -65%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 13 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $37 −$13 -36%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $300 +$44 +15%
Penguins vs. Islanders Feb 04 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 03 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press confe Jan 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 62¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Breel Embolo: 1+ goa BUY 58¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $140 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $20 11d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $15 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $30 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 36d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 61d
Will Trump dance today? BUY No $5 61d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 68d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 68d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 68d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 68d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 68d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 78d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No $1 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 96¢ $189 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.31 · official $66.31 (match) · 266 history records