Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e6f…31ae other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,110 (-14%) realized −$825 · open −$285
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$694
sports 26% +$769
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% +20.0%
≤30d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% +20.0%
≤90d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% +20.0%
all 30 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 30% +20.0%
10% -21.6% 30% +8.5%
15% -29.2% 30% -2.0%
20% -36.1% 30% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$130 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2,515
Realized−$825
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2,500 $2,230 −$270 (-11%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $84 +$115 +137%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $247 +$559 +226%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 +$1,097 +549%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $340 −$335 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,478 +$1,587 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $410 −$410 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $315 −$308 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $151 +$159 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $123 +$269 +220%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $58 +$126 +216%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $153 +$402 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $806 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,297 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $16 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $68 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $38 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $12 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $279 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $0 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $0 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $203 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $3,065 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $200 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $461 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $315 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $247 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $2 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $61 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $392 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,515.36 · official $2,515.36 (match) · 74 history records