Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e70…4b2a finance 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$315 (+5%) realized +$319 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$99
14 days+$209
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 69% +$376
sports 16% +$96
world 8% $0
economics 5% $0
other 3% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.7% +8.3% 100% 100% +8.3%
≤30d 3 +12.4% +1.7% 100% 67% -0.5%
≤90d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 40% -5.3%
all 10 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 40% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -5.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -14.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -22.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$200 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage75d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $503 +$99 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $1,006 +$109 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 24 $1,811 +$122 +7%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $207 −$200 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 29 $500 +$25 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $500 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 14 $500 +$72 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $300 +$9 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 08 $300 +$40 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $504 57m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $602 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $503 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $1,115 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $1,006 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 98¢ $970 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 91¢ $903 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 85¢ $963 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 79¢ $908 44d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $207 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? SELL No 99¢ $525 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY No 94¢ $500 56d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $500 58d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $500 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 90¢ $572 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 95¢ $309 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 92¢ $300 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 78¢ $500 64d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $300 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? SELL No 89¢ $340 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 78¢ $300 74d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $300 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.48 · official $496.48 (match) · 22 history records