Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e74…7473 other 78 markets active 20h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 57% −$14
politics 29% −$77
other 10% +$13
sports 3% +$84
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -16.9%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 56 +5.0% -5.0% 18% 14% -8.0%
all 76 +4.0% -5.9% 22% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 12% -9.5%
10% -14.9% 12% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 12% -26.1%
20% -30.7% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage586d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $19 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $330 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $169 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $172 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$15 +165%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $11 +$12 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 19h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 21h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 43h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 44h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $14 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $7 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.86 · official $153.86 (match) · 305 history records