Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e78…3945 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,856 (-5%) realized −$5,540 · open −$316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,408per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$18,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,472
7 days−$13,979
14 days−$13,885
30 days−$3,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$14,645
tech 43% +$6,281
sports 5% +$1,524
crypto 0% −$118
politics 0% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +7.5% -2.7% 31% 29% -33.5%
≤30d 59 +1.1% -8.5% 34% 31% -13.4%
≤90d 62 -2.8% -12.1% 32% 29% -16.0%
all 62 -2.8% -12.1% 32% 29% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 29% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -24.0%
15% -28.2% 23% -31.4%
20% -35.2% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$507) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$813 vs −$548 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$18,262
Realized−$5,540
Unrealized−$316
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions20
Markets (closed)62 / 82
History coverage77d
Avg bet$1,408
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $8,700 $8,684 −$16 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3,000 $2,850 −$150 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2,321 $2,364 +$43 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $800 $703 −$97 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $576 $508 −$68 (-12%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $310 $334 +$24 (+8%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $295 $297 +$2 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $213 $253 +$40 (+19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $57 $98 +$40 (+71%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$81 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$13 -27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,323 +$349 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 +$386 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $816 +$1,608 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $205 −$21 -10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $759 +$566 +74%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $564 −$550 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$7 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $554 −$64 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $302 +$97 +32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,662 −$8,500 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12,174 −$6,536 -54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $153 −$134 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$38 -75%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $139 +$61 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $491 −$355 -72%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 −$9 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $4,558 −$277 -6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$13 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $812 −$800 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $82 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $71 −$9 -13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $13,641 −$1,029 -8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$18 -58%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$173 -56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $384 −$72 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$310 +303%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $103 −$44 -43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$102 +964%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,422 +$1,527 +107%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 13 $787 −$277 -35%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $32 +$26 +82%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$28 +140%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 50m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 50m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 51m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $303 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $823 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $238 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,728 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3,081 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $205 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $411 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $37 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,031 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $822 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,516 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $172 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,049 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 16¢ $183 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $205 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $816 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $320 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,261.64 · official $18,227.74 (match) · 963 history records