Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e80…631b
other · 519 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,635 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$171 · open −$4,226
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,480
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$4,226
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses112 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions496
Markets (closed)265 / 519
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3421.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 496 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$171
14 days+$171
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $177 $175 −$3 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Up 97¢ 83¢ $194 $166 −$28 (-15%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $88 $91 +$2 (+3%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $84 $85 +$0 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+6%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? No 94¢ 82¢ $91 $79 −$12 (-13%)
Will 6+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 75¢ $91 $75 −$16 (-18%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Down 55¢ 36¢ $110 $73 −$37 (-34%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? No 39¢ 34¢ $81 $71 −$9 (-12%)
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $72 $66 −$5 (-7%)
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch Yes 67¢ 58¢ $75 $65 −$10 (-13%)
FDA approves Unicycive's Oxylanthanum carbonate? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 53¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-12%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $62 $50 −$12 (-19%)
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? No 74¢ 62¢ $60 $49 −$10 (-17%)
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? No 80¢ 81¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? No 58¢ 48¢ $59 $48 −$11 (-18%)
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $58 $47 −$11 (-19%)
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $115 $45 −$70 (-61%)
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $46 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bruno Guimaraes be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 12 $8 +$10 +118%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? Jun 12 $33 +$3 +9%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$2 -4%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $533 +$7 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $230 −$11 -5%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $349 −$7 -2%
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $17 −$3 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $85 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $93 +$59 +63%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $82 +$2 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $67 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $541 +$6 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $618 +$64 +10%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $312 −$9 -3%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 −$2 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $275 −$46 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$168 +645%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $126 −$4 -3%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$85 +798%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $101 −$12 -12%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $236 −$27 -11%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -14%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $556 −$52 -9%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% −$4,161
world 26% −$83
weather 15% +$126
finance 13% +$173
tech 9% −$18
politics 2% −$11
culture 2% −$22
sports 1% −$52
crypto 0% −$5
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 57¢ $9 0m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 0m
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 0m
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1m
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 71¢ $4 1m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 31¢ $1 1m
Will Bruno Guimaraes be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL No 4¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 82¢ $41 3m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $17 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 21¢ $12 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 82¢ $41 4m
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 21¢ $13 5m
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 89¢ $25 5m
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 45¢ $9 6m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 6m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 76¢ $152 6m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 61¢ $12 6m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 81¢ $8 7m
Will Chris Richards be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIF BUY Yes 84¢ $17 7m
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 7m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 18¢ $4 7m
Will Folarin Balogun be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FI BUY Yes 92¢ $19 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $35 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 +47.6% +33.5% 42% 20% -8.8%
≤30d 265 +47.6% +33.5% 42% 20% -8.8%
≤90d 265 +47.6% +33.5% 42% 20% -8.8%
all 265 +47.6% +33.5% 42% 20% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3421.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.5% 20% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here +20.7% 14% -17.5%
15% +9.1% 12% -25.5%
20% -1.6% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,480.31 · official $4,470.41 (match) · 3500 history records