Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e81…8a77 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$71
other 4% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 46% -16.2%
≤30d 39 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 46% -16.2%
≤90d 39 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 46% -16.2%
all 39 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 46% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 46% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 28% -24.2%
15% -32.1% 13% -31.6%
20% -38.7% 8% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records