Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e83…2809 crypto 30 markets active 4d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-11%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$33
sports 4% +$3
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.2% +3.3% 67% 67% +23.7%
≤30d 3 +14.2% +3.3% 67% 67% +23.7%
≤90d 3 +14.2% +3.3% 67% 67% +23.7%
all 30 -58.9% -62.8% 23% 17% -56.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.8% 17% -56.0%
10% -66.4% 10% -60.2%
15% -69.6% 10% -64.1%
20% -72.6% 7% -67.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage147d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 25 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12PM ET Jan 24 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5AM ET Jan 24 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3AM ET Jan 24 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11AM ET Jan 23 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET Jan 23 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4AM ET Jan 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11PM ET Jan 22 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9AM ET Jan 22 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7AM ET Jan 22 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6AM ET Jan 22 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5AM ET Jan 22 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4AM ET Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3AM ET Jan 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10PM ET Jan 22 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9PM ET Jan 22 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9PM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8PM ET Jan 21 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7PM ET Jan 21 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6PM ET Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 19 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 19 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records