Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e88…314e other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+12%) realized +$24 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$35
sports 15% +$10
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +39.0% +25.8% 79% 68% +9.7%
≤30d 19 +39.0% +25.8% 79% 68% +9.7%
≤90d 19 +39.0% +25.8% 79% 68% +9.7%
all 19 +39.0% +25.8% 79% 68% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.8% 68% +9.7%
10% +13.7% 58% -0.8%
15% +2.7% 47% -10.4%
20% -7.3% 32% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 65¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$5 +39%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Jun 24 $4 −$1 -26%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Scor Jun 24 $5 +$9 +178%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $4 +$9 +256%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$14 +89%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 22 $26 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 54¢ $3 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 88¢ $4 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 61¢ $3 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: SELL 32¢ $3 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Scor SELL 99¢ $14 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 41¢ $4 28h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Scor BUY 35¢ $5 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots AND Harry Kan BUY 49¢ $5 33h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 52¢ $5 36h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 79¢ $13 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 47h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $3 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 22¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.10 · official $19.10 · 44 history records