Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e8f…df9a sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$59 (+43%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.6% +7.3% 57% 57% -15.3%
≤30d 9 +30.8% +18.4% 67% 67% +31.6%
≤90d 9 +30.8% +18.4% 67% 67% +31.6%
all 9 +30.8% +18.4% 67% 67% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 67% +31.6%
10% +7.0% 67% +19.0%
15% -3.3% 67% +7.5%
20% -12.8% 67% -3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.94 per $1 lost it wins $4.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage15d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) FUT Esports 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +145%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$4 +131%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +89%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $84 +$49 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.71 · official $28.71 (match) · 18 history records