Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e93…3de6 crypto 1587 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$872 (-4%) realized −$872 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%834W / 753L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$757
7 days−$716
14 days−$865
30 days−$4,555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -23.4%
≤30d 1202 -31.0% -37.6% 38% 38% -30.0%
≤90d 1587 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 52% -13.8%
all 1587 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 52% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 52% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 52% -22.1%
15% -27.9% 52% -29.6%
20% -35.0% 52% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses834 / 753
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1587 / 1587
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1587 Trades
no open positions (400 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$47 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records