Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7E 0x7e93…9145 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%4W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-39.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-32.9%	-39.3%	40%	40%	-43.7%
≤30d	10	-32.9%	-39.3%	40%	40%	-43.7%
≤90d	10	-32.9%	-39.3%	40%	40%	-43.7%
all	10	-32.9%	-39.3%	40%	40%	-43.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.3%	40%	-43.7%
10%	-45.1%	40%	-49.1%
15%	-50.4%	40%	-54.0%
20%	-55.3%	30%	-58.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized−$4

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses4 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Japan leading at halftime?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$33	$32	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 29	$26	−$25	-96%
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Cerundolo	Jun 29	$28	−$22	-79%
Set 1 Winner: Tirante vs Marozsan	Jun 29	$40	−$40	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 29	$26	+$17	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 29	$15	+$13	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 29	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 29	$26	+$14	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 29	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$2	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	17¢	$34	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$26	31m
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Cerundolo	SELL Cerundolo	8¢	$6	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	46m
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Cerundolo	BUY Cerundolo	37¢	$28	55m
Set 1 Winner: Tirante vs Marozsan	BUY Tirante	59¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$3	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $31.85 (match) · 22 history records