Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e95…2525 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-15%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$22
other 31% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.8% -49.2% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤30d 5 -43.8% -49.2% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤90d 5 -43.8% -49.2% 0% 0% -45.6%
all 5 -43.8% -49.2% 0% 0% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.2% 0% -45.6%
10% -54.1% 0% -50.8%
15% -58.5% 0% -55.5%
20% -62.6% 0% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $10 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 46¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $9 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $5 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 42¢ $10 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.57 · official $74.57 (match) · 13 history records