Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e9a…f50a world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 14% −$1
weather 11% $0
sports 6% −$2
politics 6% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 31 +0.0% -9.5% 58% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage476d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 03 $17 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $6 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $30 4h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $40 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records