Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e9d…e7b4 other 452 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$444 (+13%) realized +$421 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%96W / 337L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$105
14 days−$4
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$443
sports 33% −$131
crypto 11% −$118
politics 5% +$174
culture 1% −$12
world 1% −$16
tech 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -42.3% -47.8% 11% 9% -24.6%
≤30d 205 -18.7% -26.4% 19% 17% -21.3%
≤90d 381 -12.7% -21.0% 22% 19% -5.2%
all 433 -7.7% -16.5% 22% 20% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 20% -5.9%
10% -24.5% 19% -14.9%
15% -31.8% 17% -23.1%
20% -38.5% 15% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$4 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$421
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses96 / 337
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions15
Markets (closed)433 / 452
History coverage119d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $20 $49 +$29 (+143%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 66¢ 96¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Yes 15¢ 29¢ $4 $9 +$4 (+95%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+305%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+106%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? No 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $11 +$3 +27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 15 $26 +$25 +96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Finland (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 15 $16 −$11 -70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$6 -47%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +77%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$78 +683%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Match goes to Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL No 94¢ $14 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $2 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 4¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $2 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Wi BUY 6¢ $2 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY No 74¢ $11 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY 94¢ $1 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Swed BUY 15¢ $13 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 10¢ $1 14h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 66¢ $20 20h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 5¢ $20 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.11 · official $111.11 · 1763 history records