Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e9f…164d other 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,583 (+31%) realized +$2,645 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$612
7 days+$765
14 days+$2,515
30 days+$2,515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$1,747
sports 31% +$852
crypto 2% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.9% -3.2% 41% 41% +9.4%
≤30d 56 -10.0% -18.5% 38% 36% +19.9%
≤90d 56 -10.0% -18.5% 38% 36% +19.9%
all 56 -10.0% -18.5% 38% 36% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 36% +19.9%
10% -26.3% 36% +8.5%
15% -33.4% 36% -2.0%
20% -40.0% 32% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$92 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$2,645
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage14d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 100¢ $100 $232 +$132 (+132%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 100¢ $100 $206 +$106 (+106%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $103 +$500 +488%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 +$274 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $305 −$300 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $71 +$97 +136%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$98 +97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 +$82 +81%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$185 +182%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $271 +$528 +195%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $204 +$572 +280%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $65 −$63 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,013 +$715 +71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $558 +$462 +83%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 +$453 +442%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $643 +$936 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $394 +$353 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$23 +112%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $43 +$23 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 38m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 4h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $203 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $51 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $101 45h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 45h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $102 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $71 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.37 · official $445.37 (match) · 102 history records