Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ea1…7a5f other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$41
world 11% −$55
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 38% -13.8%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 38% -13.8%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 38% -13.8%
all 8 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 38% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 38% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 25% -22.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -29.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$55 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? No 93¢ 92¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 63¢ 97¢ $13 $19 +$7 (+54%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $16 +$6 +34%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $45 +$11 +25%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $39 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $56 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $91 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $88 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 93¢ $49 19m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 63¢ $13 51m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL No 100¢ $22 56m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 77¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL No 90¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 91¢ $39 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 47¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 94¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL No 100¢ $60 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 93¢ $16 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 93¢ $39 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL No 100¢ $95 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 96¢ $17 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 96¢ $25 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 96¢ $49 8h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL No 100¢ $90 8h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 97¢ $88 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.19 · official $73.19 (match) · 29 history records