Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

7E 0x7ea1…cbb1 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$264 (+3%) realized +$264 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate61%11W / 7L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$456per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$2

14 days+$11

30 days+$14

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-6.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+8.5%	-1.8%	100%	50%	-2.3%
≤30d	7	+6.4%	-3.8%	100%	29%	-8.8%
≤90d	7	+6.4%	-3.8%	100%	29%	-8.8%
all	18	+2.9%	-6.9%	61%	28%	-6.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.9%	28%	-6.8%
10%	-15.8%	17%	-15.7%
15%	-23.9%	11%	-23.8%
20%	-31.4%	6%	-31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

55% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,499) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -17% → late +23% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$264

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses11 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage149d

Avg bet$456

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5	Under	94¢	94¢	$19	$19	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Greece?	Jun 16	$11	+$1	+11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5	Jun 16	$17	+$1	+6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$1,644	+$8	+0%
Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	Jun 04	$13	+$1	+5%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?	Jun 04	$13	+$1	+4%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)	May 18	$15	+$1	+7%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 4.5	May 18	$16	+$2	+11%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Feb 22	$1,654	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Feb 21	$2	−$2	-100%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	Feb 21	$118	−$118	-100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20?	Feb 21	$196	+$88	+45%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20?	Feb 21	$177	+$288	+163%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference?	Feb 19	$1,592	−$2	-0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20	Feb 19	$33	−$4	-13%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Feb 19	$1,499	$0	+0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference?	Feb 19	$33	−$4	-12%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026	Feb 19	$14	+$4	+25%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Feb 19	$1,598	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	94¢	$19	1h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5	BUY Under	94¢	$17	4d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Greece?	BUY No	90¢	$11	12d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?	BUY No	96¢	$13	15d
Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	BUY Vålerenga Fotball	95¢	$13	22d
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)	BUY Tottenham Hotspur FC	93¢	$15	36d
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	90¢	$16	58d
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	SELL No	97¢	$1	114d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20?	BUY Up	69¢	$92	115d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20?	BUY Up	69¢	$100	115d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20?	BUY Up	69¢	$4	115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	BUY Disguised	42¢	$118	115d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20?	BUY Down	38¢	$37	116d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20?	BUY Down	38¢	$101	116d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20?	BUY Down	38¢	$38	116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	SELL Yes	3¢	$18	116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	SELL Yes	3¢	$16	116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	BUY Yes	3¢	$30	116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference?	SELL No	96¢	$1,591	116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference?	BUY No	96¢	$1,592	116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	SELL No	96¢	$1,617	116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	BUY No	96¢	$40	116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	BUY No	96¢	$1,574	116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20	SELL Yes	3¢	$5	116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20	SELL Yes	3¢	$10	116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20	SELL Yes	3¢	$13	116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20	BUY Yes	3¢	$33	116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL No	97¢	$1,499	117d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$1,499	117d
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$1,653	117d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.70 · official $18.70 (match) · 49 history records