Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7eab…d8d4 other 57 markets active 4h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$8
other 24% +$6
culture 6% $0
crypto 4% +$4
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +1.3% -8.3% 17% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 44 +5.2% -4.9% 18% 9% -8.8%
all 56 +3.9% -6.0% 20% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 7% -9.4%
10% -15.0% 7% -18.1%
15% -23.2% 5% -26.0%
20% -30.7% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage630d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $14 +$3 +26%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $4 +$7 +172%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $127 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $66 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$5 +60%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $27 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 3h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 26h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $14 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.71 · official $44.69 (match) · 302 history records