Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7E 0x7eb7…c6f4 politics 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$124 (+12%) realized +$134 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$105
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$129
other 33% +$9
crypto 5% −$53
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +267.8% +232.8% 100% 100% +180.3%
≤30d 6 +157.1% +132.7% 67% 67% +26.5%
≤90d 6 +157.1% +132.7% 67% 67% +26.5%
all 24 +28.6% +16.3% 50% 46% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 46% -0.1%
10% +5.2% 33% -9.6%
15% -5.0% 29% -18.4%
20% -14.3% 29% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage599d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$12 +303%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$61 +398%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$31 +103%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $20 +$59 +303%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $10 −$7 -63%
Yoon in jail before August? Jul 09 $201 −$25 -13%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $90 +$19 +21%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 26 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 07 $10 +$2 +18%
US-China trade deal before June? Apr 29 $50 −$31 -62%
Will Corey Conners win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $20 −$10 -52%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Apr 12 $75 +$106 +142%
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 27 $31 +$64 +206%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Mar 18 $53 −$53 -100%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Dec 13 $50 −$36 -71%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $98 +$55 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $76 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 79¢ $62 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 93¢ $79 12d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 12d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 12d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 12d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 16¢ $4 14d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 17d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 18d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 25¢ $10 18d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18d
Yoon in jail before August? SELL No $1 341d
Yoon in jail before August? BUY No 12¢ $26 342d
Yoon in jail before August? SELL No 10¢ $97 342d
Yoon in jail before August? BUY No 12¢ $100 342d
Yoon in jail before August? BUY No 18¢ $25 344d
Yoon in jail before August? SELL No 17¢ $77 344d
Yoon in jail before August? BUY No 11¢ $50 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 68 history records