Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eb9…57ce other 38 markets active 4d ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-46%) realized −$23 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$4
economics 31% −$18
world 14% −$3
crypto 9% $0
sports 2% −$1
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.9% -32.0% 20% 20% -31.5%
≤30d 10 -24.9% -32.0% 20% 20% -31.5%
≤90d 23 -35.5% -41.7% 26% 17% -66.1%
all 32 -22.7% -30.0% 34% 28% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 28% -52.8%
10% -36.7% 22% -57.3%
15% -42.9% 16% -61.5%
20% -48.5% 16% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage298d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 39¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 61¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 57¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 75¢ 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 55¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Mar 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Mar 20 $1 $0 -0%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 1? Mar 20 $1 $0 +2%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? Mar 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $1 $0 +26%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Feb 28 $1 $0 +25%
Khamenei seen in public by February 28? Feb 28 $2 $0 +16%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 39¢ $2 85d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $2 85d
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 75¢ $1 88d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL No 68¢ $1 88d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 56¢ $1 88d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 88d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $1 88d
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 61¢ $1 88d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 43¢ $1 88d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $1 88d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 108d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 108d
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 108d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 93¢ $1 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.28 · official $4.28 (match) · 64 history records