Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7E 0x7ebc…01c6 sports 901 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$515 (-1%) realized −$514 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%454W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$392
14 days−$932
30 days−$1,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,146
sports 37% +$157
finance 0% −$67
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -12.5% -20.8% 57% 51% -14.1%
≤30d 593 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 900 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 49% -11.8%
all 900 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 49% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 49% -11.8%
10% -20.9% 47% -20.3%
15% -28.6% 43% -28.0%
20% -35.6% 39% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$514
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses454 / 446
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions1
Markets (closed)900 / 901
History coverage88d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 900 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 66¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 355 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$31 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$8 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$43 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$30 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$24 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $58 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 66¢ $6 9m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 100¢ $10 10m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 58¢ $6 1h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.77 · official $5.78 (match) · 1697 history records