trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -9.5% | -18.2% | 0% | 0% | -19.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -7.8% | -16.5% | 10% | 0% | -14.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -7.8% | -16.5% | 10% | 0% | -14.0% |
| all | 21 | +8.6% | -1.7% | 48% | 14% | -1.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.7% | 14% | -1.2% |
| 10% | -11.1% | 14% | -10.6% |
| 15% | -19.7% | 14% | -19.3% |
| 20% | -27.6% | 10% | -27.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $37 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $11 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $42 | −$13 | -31% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 11 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | -31% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $11 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | Mar 22 | $61 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Mar 20 | $48 | +$21 | +43% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? | Mar 06 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Houston Christian vs. Texas A&M Commerce | Mar 03 | $15 | −$2 | -11% |
| Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois | Mar 03 | $31 | +$33 | +104% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 25 | $10 | +$21 | +201% |