Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7ec1…3f7b crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,005 (-8%) realized −$1,131 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%76W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$322
7 days−$524
14 days−$693
30 days−$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$1,096
sports 17% +$247
other 14% −$45
finance 2% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 48% -16.0%
≤30d 70 -6.1% -15.0% 49% 47% -17.5%
≤90d 174 -10.9% -19.3% 44% 43% -18.4%
all 174 -10.9% -19.3% 44% 43% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 43% -18.4%
10% -27.1% 43% -26.2%
15% -34.1% 41% -33.4%
20% -40.6% 37% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$66 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$1,131
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses76 / 98
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage54d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 90¢ $155 $281 +$126 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$72 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$78 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $117 +$124 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $95 +$136 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $108 +$83 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $107 +$33 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$158 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $112 +$82 +73%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $114 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $297 −$288 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $178 −$70 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$80 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $315 +$165 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$216 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $119 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$103 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $151 −$144 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $166 −$160 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $393 −$75 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $93 −$88 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $120 +$78 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$72 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$123 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $81 +$74 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $76 +$47 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$75 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$126 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $197 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$35 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $197 +$279 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $137 −$130 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $51 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $99 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $98 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $98 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $98 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $231 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $112 2h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $114 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $297 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $74 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $185 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $84 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $315 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $99 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $119 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.55 · official $280.55 (match) · 330 history records