Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7ec7…2b6b sports 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,663 (-5%) realized −$16,663 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%457W / 279L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$3,664est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days+$315
14 days+$315
30 days−$2,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$21,021
other 17% +$48
crypto 3% −$131
world 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +10.5% -0.0% 66% 58% -4.2%
≤30d 268 -11.1% -19.6% 61% 37% -18.1%
≤90d 714 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 48% -16.0%
all 736 -3.0% -12.2% 62% 49% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 49% -15.6%
10% -20.6% 37% -23.7%
15% -28.3% 26% -31.0%
20% -35.3% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$434 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,663
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses457 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3,664
Open positions0
Markets (closed)736 / 738
History coverage159d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 736 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $116 +$44 +38%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$44 -44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $334 +$97 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $541 +$94 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $491 +$50 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $418 +$73 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $176 +$41 +23%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $127 +$50 +40%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $152 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $211 +$115 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$69 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$42 +136%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $160 −$129 -80%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $96 +$64 +67%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $535 −$349 -65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 +$39 +22%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $176 −$2 -1%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $294 +$123 +42%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $167 +$129 +77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $791 −$622 -79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $409 +$381 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $321 +$89 +28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $666 −$347 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $408 +$259 +64%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $301 +$108 +36%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $315 +$26 +8%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $283 −$283 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $200 +$101 +51%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $194 +$282 +146%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $203 −$10 -5%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $303 +$150 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $302 +$285 +94%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $102 +$74 +72%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $21 +$9 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 −$3 -71%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $2 +$2 +64%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $7 −$5 -70%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $109 −$74 -68%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$204 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $42 +$13 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $103 −$61 -59%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $240 −$137 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 30 $130 −$130 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $233 −$233 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $71 −$54 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $159 6m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 72¢ $116 37m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $57 38m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $153 44m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $101 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $431 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $334 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $635 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $541 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $541 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $491 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $491 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $418 22h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa SELL Paula Badosa 98¢ $217 22h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 79¢ $176 23h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 96¢ $178 23h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 68¢ $127 23h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 56¢ $153 23h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 54¢ $152 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $326 34h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $211 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL 1¢ $3 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 30¢ $72 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $72 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $31 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $160 41h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 99¢ $160 41h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 59¢ $96 42h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $96 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $150.00 · 1802 history records