Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7ec9…8a86 crypto 30 markets active 9d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+15%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 53% +0.9%
≤90d 30 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 53% +0.9%
all 30 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 53% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 53% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 43% -8.8%
15% -17.5% 40% -17.6%
20% -25.6% 40% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records