Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7E 0x7eca…ead6 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$510 (+36%) realized +$510 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$127
crypto 34% −$86
tech 32% +$367
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.3% +8.9% 50% 50% -38.9%
≤30d 13 +16.1% +5.1% 46% 46% -5.8%
≤90d 13 +16.1% +5.1% 46% 46% -5.8%
all 14 +20.9% +9.4% 50% 50% +20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 50% +20.8%
10% -1.1% 36% +9.2%
15% -10.7% 29% -1.3%
20% -19.4% 29% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$59 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$510
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage96d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $130 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $99 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $279 −$275 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $195 +$401 +206%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 25 $444 +$367 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $279 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records