Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7ecf…9148 sports 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$5,287 (-11%) realized −$6,734 · open +$1,447
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%76W / 89L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$371est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$1,162
sports 40% +$4,129
crypto 1% +$12
world 0% −$50
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +196.0% +167.8% 83% 83% +211.0%
≤30d 22 +114.2% +93.8% 64% 64% +73.9%
≤90d 165 +13.8% +3.0% 46% 46% -1.5%
all 165 +13.8% +3.0% 46% 46% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 46% -1.5%
10% -6.9% 46% -11.0%
15% -15.9% 46% -19.6%
20% -24.1% 44% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$270 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$3,637
Realized−$6,734
Unrealized+$1,447
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses76 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$371
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 183
History coverage85d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 57¢ 99¢ $2,000 $3,453 +$1,453 (+73%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Japan 31¢ 30¢ $190 $184 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $357 −$350 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $1,632 +$3,261 +200%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $41 +$65 +160%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $492 +$1,950 +397%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $507 +$419 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $356 +$405 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$12 +42%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 17 $308 +$4,280 +1388%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$10 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,072 −$3,018 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $327 −$320 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $193 −$190 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $341 +$1,173 +344%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $774 +$1,258 +162%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $308 −$300 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $448 +$653 +146%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $492 −$479 -97%
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $71 −$70 -98%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC (-1.5) May 05 $34 +$34 +101%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $2,987 −$2,987 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-01? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1 - 2 Sunderland AFC? May 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Lille OSC leading at halftime? May 05 $154 −$154 -100%
Exact Score: Brentford FC 1 - 2 West Ham United FC? May 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5) May 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 05 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 05 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 05 $1,496 −$1,496 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 05 $656 −$656 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $2,185 −$2,185 -100%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 04 $16 +$16 +101%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 02 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $61 +$55 +90%
Spread: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5) May 02 $31 +$68 +222%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) May 02 $1,483 +$1,529 +103%
KCC Egis vs. Anyang Apr 30 $32 +$18 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 31¢ $194 11m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $506 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $1,013 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $506 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 21¢ $512 3h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ja BUY 17¢ $410 24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $357 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 11¢ $154 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $51 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $41 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $206 43h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Spread: Po BUY $62 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: United St BUY $206 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $1,632 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $154 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $205 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $356 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $492 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $128 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal BUY $278 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY $308 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY $2 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $397 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,637.34 · official $4,137.34 · 393 history records