Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7ed1…3363 weather 932 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$335 (+0%) realized −$86 · open +$421
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%816W / 82L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$2,451
world 19% +$250
sports 9% −$13
finance 5% +$124
other 4% −$8
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% +$25
politics 1% +$30
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 18% -7.4%
≤30d 43 -4.2% -13.3% 77% 16% -8.9%
≤90d 859 -3.1% -12.3% 91% 5% -11.5%
all 898 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 6% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -11.4%
10% -20.5% 2% -19.9%
15% -28.2% 1% -27.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$60 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$11,637
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$421
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses816 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions34
Markets (closed)898 / 932
History coverage107d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 898 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $3,300 $3,735 +$435 (+13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,069 +$69 (+7%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,014 +$14 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $800 $798 −$2 (-0%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $500 $510 +$10 (+2%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 86¢ $400 $368 −$32 (-8%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 82¢ $400 $339 −$61 (-15%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 90¢ $300 $275 −$25 (-8%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will s1mple retire by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $98 −$6 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,002 +$39 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,001 +$18 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,010 +$11 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $100 −$3 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$54 -54%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $600 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,001 +$31 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,300 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $301 +$46 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $301 +$46 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +2%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,001 +$33 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$85 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $102 +$98 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$23 -23%
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $201 −$200 -100%
Will GamerLegion reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $800 +$5 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,200 +$4 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $100 +$8 +8%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $300 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $300 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $500 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $500 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 9h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,021 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $98 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 19h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 93¢ $97 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $900 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3,000 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 21h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $100 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $300 21h
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 BUY No 88¢ $100 21h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,636.65 · official $11,648.94 (match) · 2129 history records